What are TAM, SAM, and SOM?
TAM is the total addressable market for the category. SAM is the serviceable share that fits your model (geo, segment, channel). SOM is the obtainable share you can realistically win in the planning window.
The formulas.
SAM = TAM × serviceable share %. SOM = SAM × obtainable share %. The two shares are independent: SAM filters TAM, SOM filters SAM.
A worked example.
TAM of 10 billion, 20% serviceable, 3% obtainable. SAM = 2 billion. SOM = 60 million.
Top-down vs bottom-up.
Top-down uses analyst market sizes. Bottom-up multiplies target accounts by ACV. Investors prefer bottom-up because it is grounded in your actual ICP.
Common mistakes.
Claiming 10%+ of a giant SAM in year one. Confusing TAM with SOM in the pitch. Using a market figure that includes segments your product cannot serve.
